Zhouying JIN
金周英
About the author Professor Zhouying Jin is a senior researcher and professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). She is president and founder of the Beijing Academy of Soft Technology and author of Global Technological Change: From Hard Technology to Soft Technology. Projects she has led at CASS include Strategy Research for the Nation’s High-Tech Research and Development Plan and Long-term Strategy Integration and Sustainable Development. Jin was named by Ross Dawson in a list of the world’s top female futurists.
关于作者金周英，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所研究员，博士生导师，中国社会科学院原技术创新和战略 管理研究中心主任。创建并担任北京软技术研究院院长；世界未来协会中国分部主席；被罗斯道森网评为“全球优秀的女性未来学家”（上榜的世界 100 多位中唯一的中国学者）。
The following excerpts are taken from Jin’s The Future of Humanity (Second Edition) (2022), translated from the Chinese 《人类的未来》 by Lane Jennings. We made a few minor edits to improve the accuracy and clarity of the translation. We precede each excerpt with our own bolded summary of the key point.
▶ Cite Our Translation
Concordia AI. “Zhouying Jin — Chinese Perspectives on AI Safety.” Chineseperspectives.ai, 29 Mar. 2024, chineseperspectives.ai/Zhouying-Jin.
▶ Cite This Work
金周英(2022). 人类的未来：从全球文明到伟大文明. 湖南科技出版社.
Selected excerpts
Exploring long-term human futures must be a broader endeavor:
“From any credible perspective, we are standing at a crossroads in the history of human civilization… Yet even now serious attempts to explore long-term human futures are largely limited to members of the scientific or futurist communities, while the general public – when it thinks about the future at all – generally does so on the basis of extreme visions offered in works of popular science fiction, which, while highly entertaining, can also be highly misleading and hence very dangerous.”
Exploring long-term human futures must be a broader endeavor:
“From any credible perspective, we are standing at a crossroads in the history of human civilization… Yet even now serious attempts to explore long-term human futures are largely limited to members of the scientific or futurist communities, while the general public – when it thinks about the future at all – generally does so on the basis of extreme visions offered in works of popular science fiction, which, while highly entertaining, can also be highly misleading and hence very dangerous.”
精选原文
探索人类长远未来必须是多方位、多层次的：
“不管从哪个角度我们都站在人类文明史之十字路口上……更令人担忧的是，针对上述种种深层危机特别是人类长远未来的课题，目前的倾向是仅限于科学家、未来学家的探索。至于多数公众对长远未来的认识，通常是基于科幻小说或科幻电影所提供的极端愿景，而且具有高度娱乐性。这是一种极大的误导，是非常危险的。”
探索人类长远未来必须是多方位、多层次的：
“不管从哪个角度我们都站在人类文明史之十字路口上……更令人担忧的是，针对上述种种深层危机特别是人类长远未来的课题，目前的倾向是仅限于科学家、未来学家的探索。至于多数公众对长远未来的认识，通常是基于科幻小说或科幻电影所提供的极端愿景，而且具有高度娱乐性。这是一种极大的误导，是非常危险的。”
“Maybe one day, we will all suddenly be enlightened. But by then, it may already be too late. A much better option would be for humans to open multi-level and multi-faceted dialogues, so as to gradually arrive at a deep consensus on how to correct the flaws in our existing civilization, and to agree on what kind of future we need; how we can create this kind of future; and how humanity itself can improve to establish and maintain a sustainable existence while enabling responsible development.” (p.1)
“也许有那么一天，当我们恍然大悟的时候，事情已经太晚了……有一点是肯定的。我们需要多方面、多层次的对话，以逐步形成深层次的共识：我们需要什么样的未来？我们应该创造什么样的未来？怎样才能使人类可持续生存和发展？”
Technology presents significant risks to human survival:
“Consider too, the explosive development of hard technology and the growing danger of widespread damage from technologies that, intentionally or not, may spin out of control, as well as the dangers posed by ever-greater technological intervention in human life, and the dimensions of the so-called crisis of science and technology appear so vast as to make this truly a crisis of human evolution and survival.” (p.1)
科技给人类的生存带来了极大的风险：
随着硬技术的爆炸式发展、对技术负面影响的失控之可能性增加以及技术干预人类的生命系统等所导致的科学技术危机、人类的进化方向乃至人类文明危机正在凸现。“If we do not seek to halt the abuse of technology, the speed of the destruction of the Earth and humanity will accelerate. According to the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, the greatest danger to humanity is not plague, famine, earthquakes, or even nuclear war, but highly developed science and technology. The rapid speed of scientific and technological development exceeds the human ability to control it. This is like placing a deadly weapon in the hands of a child.” (p.10)
“如果对技术的滥用不加制止，将加快人类毁灭的速度。牛津大学的人类未来研究所称，能给人类带来灭顶之灾的最大危险并非瘟疫、饥荒、地震，也不是核战争，而是高度发达的科学技术。科学技术发展速度之快超过了人类对新的科学技术所带来的后果之控制能力，就像孩童手里的致命武器。”
Human cooperation and civilizational transformation are needed to stop humans destroying themselves:
“If human beings who share an earth cannot correctly grasp the direction of human evolution; if they cannot alter their destructive relationship with nature, and abandon “people-centered” and ‘'self-centered” thinking everywhere; if they cannot alleviate the threat of war and terrorism “as soon as possible” through the sublimation and perfection of human nature, and create a more advanced civilization; if they cannot deal with the planet’s common crises—climate change, species extinction, land and food shortages, water pollution, etc; in short, if they cannot correctly learn the lessons of the current global catastrophe caused by the COVID-19; if they cannot promote the real awakening of all mankind; and cooperate to establish a new world order and accelerate the pace of civilizational transformation, then indeed the human race is doomed to move toward self-destruction long before the dangers posed by gene-enhanced Super-beings or robots endowed with artificial intelligence robots ever emerge.” (p.6)
人类合作与文明转型对于阻止人类自我毁灭而言是必不可少的：
“总之，共享一个地球的人类，如果不能正确把握人类自身的进化方向；如果人类仍不能正确处理与自然的关系，处处“以人为中心”“以自我为中心”；如果不能“尽快”通过人性的升华和完善的努力，远离战争和恐怖主义威胁，创造更先进的文明；如果不能全力应对当今世界人类面临的共同危机——气候变化，物种灭绝，土地与粮食危机，水危机等；如果不能正确吸收当前新冠病毒所导致的全球性大灾难之血的教训，促进全人类的真正觉醒；如果不能团结起来通过合作建立新的世界秩序，维护人类的共同家园，加快文明转型的步伐，不用等到超人或人工智能机器人来消灭人类，人类将加速走向自我毁灭的末日。”
Existential risk from AI is credible:
[In a section called “People worry that the enhanced beings resulting from technological integration could become superior to humans in the short term, and ultimately seek to control humans, or supplant them entirely”, the author cites concerns from Stephen Hawking, Martin Rees, and “a center for ‘Terminator studies1’launched at Cambridge University.”] (p.12)
人工智能带来的生存性风险是可信的：
在“担心未来技术集成的人造物超过人的能力，控制人类”这一节，作者引用了霍金、里斯和“剑桥大学成立的‘终结者研究’”中心的担忧。
Traditional humans could face the tragic fate that present-day animals suffer:
“Most animals today cannot avoid a tragic fate. Except for a few lucky animals, such as dogs and cats that are treated as pets, most animals become food for humans, and furthermore, in order to improve their flavor, humans often interfere with the way animals are treated during their short lifespans…. If a species whose “ability” is greater than that of traditional humans appears in the world, will traditional humans meet the fate that most animals currently experience?” (pp.76-79)
人类可能面临如今动物所遭遇的悲惨命运：
“现在这些动物大都避免不了悲惨命运：除少数幸运的动物诸如狗和猫变成宠物，或者被关在各种类型的“动物园”中供人欣赏，多数动物变成了人类餐桌上的美食，并为了提高其美味，人类随意改变它们短暂的生存方式和生命周期。......如果这个世界出现那些比传统人类的“能力”更强的物种，或者传统人类成为这些物种生存的竞争对手，上述动物的命运会不会落在传统人类的身上？”
Weaponized viruses present catastrophic risks:
“Unfortunately, there are hundreds of biochemical laboratories or biochemical research bases all over the world, many of them are conducting research of bioweapons. Genetically modified organisms, genetic weapons, and other biological weapons that are less obvious and more lethal are also being researched and developed. In the event of a virus research accident or the intentional misuse of these technologies, the resulting disaster will exceed that from any previous weapons of mass destruction.” (p.86)
武器化的病毒带来灾难性风险：
“遗憾的是，目前遍布世界各地的几百个生化实验室或生化研究基地，其中很多机构的研究目标就是生化武器。还有，转基因生物、基因武器等隐蔽性更强、杀伤力更彻底的生物武器也在大肆研究、发展中。如果发生病毒研究事故或滥用这些技术，所导致的灾难将超过任何大规模毁灭性武器。”
We must not carry the warped values of Industrial Civilization to other planets, and there must be a legal system for space management:
“In discussing interstellar civilization, first of all, the idea of space colonization is undesirable… Secondly, we must guard against the militarization of the sky… Third, we should not regard other planets as potential refuges for traditional human beings after being defeated in the battle over human–machine civilization on earth…”
我们决不能将工业文明的价值观克隆到其他星球上，且需要建立管理太空的法律体系：
“在探讨星际文明中，首先，太空殖民思想是不可取的。......其次，必须警惕天空军事化趋势。第三，不能把其他星球当作传统人类在地球的人机文明战役中被打败而寻找的逃难所......”
“We must not carry the warped values of Industrial Civilization to other planets… These include the struggle to obtain absolute domination over nature and behavior patterns such as the unrestricted pursuit of material desires, advocating lifestyles of high consumption and high waste, perpetuating the ideological confrontation between East and West and the great disparity between the development of the North and the South.”
“决不能把工业文明的价值观克隆到其他星球上......包括争相取得对自然的绝对统治和征服权和行为模式如无限制地追求物欲，提倡高消费、高浪费的生活方式，并让东西对峙、南北发展悬殊，重演。”
“If we “clone” or even “popularize” these models for human failure on earth to other planets, then human beings will destroy other planets one by one, just as we destroy the natural environment of the earth. In this sense, developing space technology alone is not enough to prepare human beings to migrate from our home planet. The world needs to establish a complete legal system for space management. It can be seen that promoting the transformation of Industrial Civilization is an important prerequisite for the creation of Interstellar Civilization.” (p.158)
“如果我们把人类在地球上的失败模式“克隆”甚至“普及”到其他星球，就像我们破坏地球的自然环境一样，还是会一个接一个地进行破坏其他星球。在这种意义上，人类移民星球的准备，仅靠发展太空技术是不够的，世界需要建立一套管理太空的法律体系。可见，促进工业文明转型也是创建星际文明的重要前提。”
China’s rejuvenation requires futures research:
“From the perspective of a country, futures research can be said to be a higher-level form of basic research. It provides research results that enable a country to formulate a long-term development strategy, so as to enhance its comprehensive national strength and maintain its prosperity, including pointing out the most promising direction for basic research. German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel said that a nation is hopeless unless it has people who look up at the stars with lively interest. If a nation is only concerned with immediate things, it has no future.”
中国的全面复兴需要进一步研究：
“从一个国家的角度，未来研究可以说是更高层面的基础研究，即从长远的视角，为一个国家提升综合国力、持续保持兴旺发达而制定高瞻远瞩的发展战略提供研究成果，其中包括为基础研究指明方向。德国哲学家黑格尔说，一个民族只有有那些关注天空的人，这个民族才有希望；如果一个民族只是关心脚下的事情，这个民族是没有未来的。”
[The author goes on to make several recommendations including “The gaps in China’s futures research require deep reflection”, “For China’s overall rejuvenation, futures studies must be strengthened”, and “We need to deeply study and promote the transformation of human civilization.”]
作者在此处给出了几条建议，包括“我国在未来研究方面的差距，需要深刻反省”、“中国要全面复兴，必须加强未来研究”以及“需要深入研究和推动人类文明转型”。
Humans should pursue a transition from Industrial Civilization to a Global Civilization, to an interstellar Great Civilization:
“The twenty-first to the twenty-second century will be a transition period when the world will move from an Industrial Civilization towards a Global Civilization…”
人类应该追求从工业文明向全球文明再到星际大文明的转型：
“21世纪到22世纪将是世界从工业文明走向全球文明的过渡时期……”
“If the transition period of Industrial Civilization is regarded as the incubation period for Global Civilization, another 400 years (from the twenty-second to the twenty-fifth century) may be required from first consciously promoting Global Civilization in individual countries to realizing it throughout the world (this timetable assumes that we take sufficiently good care of the Earth and that human beings continue to evolve and survive on Earth)...”
“如果工业文明的转型期被视为全球文明的孵化期，那么从最初在个别国家有意识地推动全球文明到在全世界范围内实现全球文明，可能还需要400年(从22世纪到25世纪)(这个时间表假设我们足够爱护地球，而人类继续在地球上进化和生存)……”
“After this, the transition from Global Civilization to Great Civilization will require long and difficult efforts… But I believe that human beings can eventually transition from Global Civilization to Great Civilization, and that the period required may be even shorter than those of previous eras…”
在此之后，从全球文明到伟大文明的转型将需要长期而艰难的努力……但我相信人类最终能够从全球文明过渡到伟大文明，而且所需的时间可能比以前的时代更短……
FIGURE 5.1: From Industrial to Global to Great Civilization
图 5.1: 从工业文明，到全球文明，再到伟大文明
图 5.1: 从工业文明，到全球文明，再到伟大文明
Transitions between civilizational paradigms present significant risks:
“In this long process of transforming civilization, it remains an open question whether human beings can successfully complete two major civilization paradigm shifts, so as to avoid a sudden drop off in the progress of human civilization. The key is how to cope effectively with risks in the transition period of civilization just ahead (see Figure 5.2).” (pp. 196-197)
文明范式之间的转变带来了极大的危险：
在这个漫长的文明转型过程中，人类能否成功地完成两次重大的文明范式转型，从而避免人类文明进程的突然下滑，仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。关键是如何有效应对即将到来的文明转型期的风险(见图5.2)。
FIGURE 5.2: Warning: several critical periods of historical paradigm shift
图 5.2：警示：文明范式转变的几个关键时期
图 5.2：警示：文明范式转变的几个关键时期
Translator’s notes
1. This is how the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk was referred to in reports relating to the planned launch of the centre in 2012, e.g. https://www.highereddive.com/news/cambridge-to-launch-center-for-terminator-studies/75756/
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